Severe storms ravaged Osun political space in the last few weeks. Veteran and amateur followers of political practice have had various takes on whys and hows. The disruptions now extend to national politics, changing the dynamics of contentions from Osogbo to Abuja.
Several failed uprisings were recorded but the most significant was the local government coup against rule of law. As usual with all illegality, the hijack suffered from zero legal foundation, prompting top federal officials to review what was a political plot for a truly legal interpretation and application. It is not surprising therefore that the most potent of offensive against the present order in Osun state is fizzling out within the context of reality of legal and political realism.
Within a work in progress, the genesis and the rationale for the rupture presents an intriguing scenario. A former governor, Adegboyega Oyetola and his party, APC, launched a comeback bid with multiple strategies. Their approach is to weaken the present government, hijack local administration by relying on federal might, and thereafter use the local structures as a springboard for state capture. The opposition indeed has a tough plan inclusive of ejecting the present occupant of Abere through a state of emergency contraption.
The opposition has more sinister plots including infiltrating the labour movement, the pensioners’ union and dollarizing the media within a bigger megaphone of fake news. As their agents are empowered to commit libel, defamation and character assassination, ruling party operatives are to be hunted with security forces if they retaliate by exposing the skeleton in the opposition’s cupboard.
To actualize all these take over plots, a huge war chest is to be amassed and deployed. Poverty is to be weaponized and religious groups are to be “pounded”. Every breach of the law committed in pursuance of these anti-democratic agenda is to be excused as the opposition has no scruple to transform federal institutions into partisan bodies.
The state APC actually believe the strategic document to take over Osun even before 2026 is all foolproof. Thus, its operatives were carelessly and illogically loud about the inevitability of darkness overcoming light.
When fully studied, the opposition rule book has major loopholes. Its first major flaw was premising operational success on the destruction of the democratic order. In simple terms, the opposition success tools include hijacking the security services to do illegal bidding, diluting the judiciary to abandon rule of law, using brute force to detain and harrass state government officials, destroying democratic morality by weaponizing poverty and shattering all known ethos of Omoluabi.
The above approach carries with it repulsive consequences as democracy is rule based and once the rule is destroyed, the first victim is likely to be those who crushed the lawful order. They lost the democratic appellation and they are thus treated as little tyrants. The world of democracy rises against them and the outcome is the failure of such fascist uprising.
But more specifically, the Osun APC rule book is deficient for other reasons. The strategy could not change its antecedents, its records of governance and recorded and documented tales of bad governance while at the helm of affairs in the state. The opposition ignores the people who still vividly remember the dark days and who tremble at the state hijack agenda. Except the opposition plans genocide against Osun people, capturing the state under whatever guise is dead on arrival. Its rating among the people remains as low as ever especially after the barefaced invasion of local government secretariats across the state.
Even if the APC publicly apologized for bad governance of the past, the dent will still stick. Worst still, the APC has persisted in errors, still adding insult to injury by glorifying the evil days of the pre-Adeleke era in Osun state. The people know and feel the undeniable incorrigibility of those failed men of yesterday.
There is another reason why the rule book failed so miserably. The incumbent out of divine grace has surpassed the four year governance records of his predecessor within two years in office. Anytime the opposition disputed Governor Adeleke’s performance, they should be questioned why even federal agencies have honoured him so variously as agent of good governance? Or has the Governor bribed the Federal Government?
As of today, the Governor has received close to 100 unsolicited good governance awards from top rated newspaper houses, civil society organisations and international bodies. Recently the Bill Gate foundation-led primary health challenge competition saw Osun coming first in the South West with a $500,000 prize. Governor Adeleke’s commendable performance which Osun people daily applauded is repeatedly validated by various outside bodies.
A performing government backed by the people cannot crash simply because of bitterness over the loss of 2022. If the Osun APC cares to know, Governor Adeleke was not in the same position former Governor Oyetola was in 2022. In popularity rating, both men are poles apart. Adeleke’s popularity rating today is over 75 percent. Can the same be said of Mr Oyetola in 2022? Adeleke’s job performance rating today is over 85 percent. Can we in all sincerity say the same of the respected Marine Minister?
Extrapolating from the above, the success of a rule book against an incumbent depends on several factors. For the PDP in 2022, our rule book was almost foolproof and backed by deep discontentment of the public against the government of Mr Oyetola. Today, Asiwaju Adeleke has the overwhelming backing of the people. The dancing /performing Governor owns the streets of Osun. Hence, the opposition’s dethronement scheme is a failure on arrival.
Let’s consider the national scenarios. The political permutation at the national level is changing rapidly. I remember 2013 to 2015 as a Special Assistant to a minister under former President Goodluck Jonathan. The anti-Jonathan plot started with unbelievability and deniability. Fast forward, we have entered a new era of power struggle.
I read a piece in Tribune recently about “Osun Enemies within the Presidency”. There was another material sponsored by Osun APC alleging that some Presidency officials are supporting Governor Adeleke and even planning an APC ticket for him in 2026. Also, there was an Osun PDP attack on Umar Ganduje accusing him of being an SDP agent, colluding with shadowy groups against the President in the North while promoting conflict in the South West.
In all of these, one thing is clear-a national political war is afoot. Everybody is consolidating his homebase. Any rule book premised on federal might to set Osun state ablaze for state capture is operationally impotent and consigned to failure. No smart general will mash troops on his homestead at a time rocket launchers are raining on his camp from outside. Even an amateur war commander is aware that a secured operational base is key to any successful military campaign.
As the national political space is heated up, those amateur strategists within Osun APC will realise the futility of a fascist uprising to capture state power. Unless a miracle occurs that can suddenly erase APC’s evil records in Osun governance, continuity of Imole will remain a reality, now and in the future.
● Olawale Rasheed is the Spokesperson / Special Adviser to Governor Ademola Adeleke.
